Product & Delivery · Chapter 9 of 13
Agile, Scrum and Kanban, honestly
What each actually is, the one equation that governs delivery, and how to tell a practice that works from one being performed.
Almost everyone works in something called Agile and almost nobody can say what it is supposed to achieve. That gap is why the practices get performed rather than used, and why “we're Agile” is compatible with a two-year release cycle.
What the original claim actually was
The manifesto is four preferences, each of the form A over B — and the phrasing matters, because it says explicitly that there is value in both. It prefers individuals and interactions over processes and tools; working software over comprehensive documentation; customer collaboration over contract negotiation; and responding to change over following a plan.
The underlying claim is about feedback latency. Building software involves learning what you should have built, and you learn it fastest by putting something in front of someone. Everything else — short iterations, working software, collaboration — follows from wanting that loop to be short.
So the diagnostic question for any practice is: does this shorten the loop between building something and finding out whether it was right? A daily stand-up where people report status to a manager does not. A demo to a real user does.
Scrum and Kanban, and what each is actually for
| Scrum | Kanban | |
|---|---|---|
| Core mechanism | A timebox — a fixed-length sprint with a commitment | A work-in-progress limit — a cap on how much can be in each stage |
| Cadence | Fixed. Plan, build, review, retrospect | Continuous. Pull when there is capacity |
| Roles | Prescribed: product owner, scrum master, developers | None prescribed |
| Change mid-cycle | Discouraged — the sprint is protected | Expected — reprioritise the queue at any time |
| Fits | Work you can scope ahead: product development, projects with a roadmap | Work that arrives: support, operations, platform teams, anything interrupt-driven |
| Fails when | Genuine interrupts arrive constantly, so every sprint is broken and the ritual becomes theatre | Nobody enforces the limits, at which point it is a list of tasks with columns |
The most common structural mistake in delivery is running Scrum in a team whose work arrives unplanned. A platform or support team cannot commit to a two-week scope when half its work will be discovered on Tuesday, so the sprint is broken every sprint, the commitment becomes meaningless, and everyone concludes the process does not work. The process is fine; it is the wrong process for that work.
The one equation, which is a law rather than a framework
Why 'we need to move faster' almost never means people are working too slowly
If a team completes five items a week and forty are in flight, the average item takes eight weeks. That is arithmetic, not effort. Working harder does not change it; finishing more or starting less does.
So the highest-return intervention available to most teams is to limit work in progress — which shortens lead time without anybody working faster, costs nothing, and feels deeply wrong to everyone involved because it looks like doing less.
The resistance is worth naming: starting something feels like progress and is measurable immediately; finishing something takes longer and is only visible at the end. Individuals and managers both optimise for the visible signal, which is exactly how forty things end up in flight.
The practical move: put a number on each column, enforce it, and when the limit is hit, the rule is that you help finish something rather than start something. The first week is uncomfortable and the effect on lead time is usually visible within a month.
Estimation, and the honest position
Estimation generates more argument than any other practice and the honest position is narrower than either camp's.
- Story points were invented to avoid arguing about hours, by expressing relative size instead. The moment anyone converts points to hours or compares velocity across teams, the mechanism is defeated and you are arguing about hours again with extra steps.
- Velocity is a planning aid for one team, not a productivity metric. Using it to compare teams or to set targets guarantees inflation, immediately and permanently, because the number is defined by the people it measures.
- Counting items works about as well as estimating them. There is reasonable evidence that forecasting from the historical distribution of how long items took beats forecasting from estimates — because items cluster in size more than people expect, and estimates are systematically optimistic in ways history is not.
- So the defensible practice is to break work down until items are roughly similar in size, count them, and forecast from your own historical cycle-time distribution — giving a range with a confidence rather than a date. ‘Eighty-five percent of items like this finished within three weeks’ is both more honest and more useful than a point estimate.
- And the breakdown itself is where the value is. Most of the benefit people attribute to estimation comes from the conversation that reveals nobody had thought about migration, or auth, or the third-party rate limit. Keep the conversation; the number is a by-product.
How to tell a practice from a performance
A retrospective is real if something changed as a result within a fortnight and someone can name it. It is theatre if the same three issues appear every time and the notes are never read again. The test is whether the previous retro's actions are reviewed at the start of the next one.
A stand-up is real if it surfaces a blocker that then gets unblocked. It is theatre if it is status reporting to a manager — and the tell is whether people look at each other or at the manager while speaking.
A demo is real if someone who will actually use the thing is present and says something surprising. It is theatre if the audience is the team and its manager.
A definition of done is real if work has been sent back for failing it. It is theatre if it is a wiki page nobody has opened in a year.
And a backlog is real if things get deleted from it. A backlog that only grows is not a plan; it is a list of everything anyone has ever suggested, and its main effect is to make everyone feel behind.
Scaling frameworks, and the honest read
Frameworks for coordinating many teams exist because the coordination problem is genuine: twelve teams working on one product do have dependencies, and something has to resolve them.
The honest assessment is two-sided. The critique is fair — the heavier frameworks reintroduce most of the planning apparatus the original ideas were reacting against, and a quarterly planning event that fixes scope for three months is a waterfall with ceremonies. And the problem they address is real, so “just don't scale” is not advice.
The version that works, in my experience of what survives: reduce the coordination need rather than manage it better. Teams organised around a product area with the skills to ship independently have few dependencies to coordinate; teams organised around a layer of the stack have one for every feature. That is a structural fix, and it makes the framework question much less important — which is why the most useful thing a delivery leader can do is usually an org-design change rather than a process change.
Check yourself
What was the original claim behind Agile?
That feedback latency dominates — you learn what you should have built by putting something in front of someone. Every practice should be judged on whether it shortens that loop.When is Scrum the wrong choice?
When work arrives unplanned. A team that discovers half its work on Tuesday cannot commit to a two-week scope, so the sprint breaks every sprint and the ritual becomes theatre.Why does limiting work in progress make things faster?
Lead time equals work in progress divided by throughput. Fewer things in flight means each finishes sooner, with nobody working faster — it is arithmetic, not effort.How do you tell a real retrospective from a performed one?
Whether the previous retro's actions are reviewed at the start of the next one, and whether anyone can name something that changed within a fortnight.The scaled frameworks, and what the evidence supports
For scaled agile frameworks, the peer-reviewed evidence supports description, not comparison.
The relevant systematic review — comparing the five best-known large-scale methods — states plainly that the literature contains no cross-method comparison based on empirical evidence, and that it was the first study to compare their principles, practices, tools and metrics in a standardised way. It compares specifications, not outcomes.
So anyone claiming one scaled framework outperforms another is making a claim the literature explicitly says has not been tested.
The best-known framework's own current public claims are qualitative — improved engagement, time to market, productivity, quality — supported by self-reported customer testimonials rather than measurement. The widely circulated percentage improvements attributed to it are not on its current published pages and could not be sourced; treat them as folklore.
The useful position: pick a framework for the coordination problem you actually have, expect the evidence base to be testimonial, and measure your own outcomes before and after. That is a more honest answer than either enthusiasm or contempt, and it is the one that survives a sceptical executive.
The Spotify model: what actually happened
The most-copied organisational design in software was never fully implemented at the company it is named after, and the people who wrote it down have said so publicly.
Three quotes, correctly attributed
A product manager who joined in 2017, after the company had tripled to three thousand people in eighteen months, reported: “I learned the famed squad model was only ever aspirational and never fully implemented. I witnessed organizational chaos as the company's leaders incrementally transitioned to more traditional management structures.”
An agile coach who was there from 2011 to 2017: “Even at the time we wrote it, we weren't doing it. It was part ambition, part approximation. People have really struggled to copy something that didn't really exist.”
A co-author of the original paper: “It worries me when people look at what we do and think it's a framework they can just copy and implement… We are really trying hard now to emphasize we have problems as well.”
And the detail that reframes the whole thing: the write-up was planned as a multi-part series. Autonomy made the first cut. The parts on alignment and accountability were never written. The industry copied one third of a design and attributed the result to the whole.
What actually failed, which is not what people think
The cross-functional team worked. What failed was the matrix management of engineers, and the mechanism is specific enough to be useful:
- Chapter leads managed engineers by specialism across teams and had little responsibility beyond career development of the people they managed.
- So the product manager had no equivalent peer — no counterpart with delivery accountability who could negotiate priorities at the same level. There was no single person accountable for the engineering team's delivery.
- The escalation arithmetic: a team with backend, web and mobile engineers had at least three engineering managers who might need to be involved in one team's disagreement — escalating to a director if they could not agree.
- The coach's own words on chapter leads: they “don't really work with any team… They aren't taking that responsibility.”
- And his retrospective: “If I were to do one thing differently, I would say we should not be focusing so much on autonomy… Maybe, just maybe, we should have a minimum viable agility.”
The single sentence to take from the whole episode, and it is the best available argument for the TPM role:
“Every responsibility a team cedes to increase its focus becomes a new cross-team dependency.”
Autonomy is not free. It converts internal coordination into external coordination, and external coordination has to be owned by someone or it is left to good intentions.
The company did not define a common process for cross-team collaboration — so every team having a unique way of working meant every collaboration needed a unique way of engaging. Organisation-wide productivity suffered.
A CTO responding to the account put the conclusion bluntly: this is one of the strongest arguments for a technical program manager, because that role provides dedicated ownership of cross-team activities so that it is not left to good intentions.
What to do with all of this in a room
The honest synthesis, and it is more useful than either the framework pitch or the cynical dismissal: coordination cost is conserved. You can pay it inside a team through hierarchy, or across teams through dependencies and negotiation. Every organisational design is a choice about where to pay it, and no design removes it.
So the question to ask about any proposed structure is not ‘is this agile?’ but “where does this move the coordination cost, and who owns it once it moves?” The Spotify story is what happens when the answer to the second half is nobody.
Check yourself